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What the Experts Hear in the Joran van der Sloot Confession
Peruvian police say Joran van der Sloot has confessed to killing 21-year-old student Stephany Flores.
Newswires around the world are abuzz over the reported confession of Joran van der Sloot, the Dutch native arrested last week in a Peruvian woman's murder, but who is perhaps equally infamous for his longtime association with the 2005 disappearance of Natalee Holloway.
Many of those same headlines are dubbing van der Sloot a serial killer, yet experts tell AOL News that's not necessarily the case -- and not just because he was never charged in the Holloway case.
"He's not abducting women and he's not jumping out of bushes," says D.C.-based criminal profiler Pat Brown, founder of the Pat Brown Criminal Profiling Agency. "A serial killer does not target people they can be linked to.
"I think the more appropriate term for him is a serial sexual predator," she continues. "He goes after women for one thing and then gets mad when they don't cooperate. That's why, in [the past] five years ... you don't have 100 dead women. Maybe we'll find later there are 20 rape victims, but I don't believe he's killing them."
Van der Sloot, 22, is being held in Peru, where he is the prime suspect in the slaying of Stephany Flores, 21. She was found dead in van der Sloot's Lima hotel room on June 2, setting off a police manhunt that ended with his arrest in Chile on Thursday.
Brown believes van der Sloot "never intended to kill" Flores, which is why he got caught, she says. "When he's with a girl, he gives his name and everybody knows who he is," she says. "He did not plan to kill anybody -- especially in his own hotel room, with his name attached to it."
For forensic consultant Dr. Park Dietz, van der Sloot may also represent a case of entitlement gone bad. The accused's late father, Paulus van der Sloot, was a wealthy judge with a lot of political clout, whereas his son has seldom -- if ever -- worked and spends the majority of his time inside casinos.
"It is a riches-to-rags story," says Dietz, founder of Park Dietz and Associates in Newport Beach, Calif. "Among the upper crust there is this perpetual problem of failing to pass [on] to their children what really matters in life with respect to values and ethics. ... By and large, we see families in this busy age doing the easy thing, which is to give their children everything except those moral lessons, and it produces a disabled generation."
'I Did Not Want to Do It'
Experts are also mulling why van der Sloot was apparently so eager to implicate himself in Flores' murder.
In the case of Natalee Holloway, the 18-year-old Alabama woman who vanished in Aruba in May 2005, he was anything but forthcoming, providing several versions of the events regarding her disappearance. But officials say he is willingly providing details of Flores' death.
Dietz tells AOL News he thinks there are "some plausible theories and some implausible theories" about why van der Sloot confessed. The former would include highly skilled police interviewers, van der Sloot's own sense of self-preservation and the appeal of confinement in Peru, where van der Sloot could possibly bribe prison guards or escape, Dietz says.
"The implausible theories would be pangs of conscience, feelings of guilt, remorse or honesty," Dietz says.
Brown says she believes van der Sloot is angling for a lesser sentence. "He told [police] everything they already knew because he had two things going for him: Officials in Peru like confessions and will go easier on you, and secondly, he wanted to get out of a first-degree murder charge."
According to officials in Peru, van der Sloot said he grew angry with Flores when she used his laptop to find out about his involvement in the Holloway case. "I did not want to do it," van der Sloot allegedly said. "The girl intruded into my private life. She had no right. I went to her and I hit her. She was scared. We argued and she tried to escape. I grabbed her by the neck and I hit her."
But the story doesn't sound right to Brown.
"He said, 'I did not want to do it' and 'She had no right,' " Brown says. "I think what he was saying is, 'She didn't want to do it' and 'She had no right to refuse me' " -- as in, Flores refused his sexual advances.
"His story makes no sense," Brown continues, pointing out that Flores was found wearing only a T-shirt and underwear. "[H]e expects us to believe that at 5 in the morning ... [Flores] took her pants off and then suddenly got curious and started Googling him? That's not very conducive of a romantic interlude."
For his part, Dietz says he would not be surprised if van der Sloot eventually retracts his alleged confession and offers up another story about what happened that night.
"A strategy that he apparently has learned ... is that if you mistakenly tell the truth, you might be able to diminish the consequences by radically changing your story and claiming you were lying before," Dietz says. "You can then do it again and again.
"And if you tell enough different versions, no one will know what is true and they won't be able to rely on any confession you've made."
'The Worst of the Worst'
At this time, it's unclear whether van der Sloot agreed to confess in order to avoid the maximum sentence: up to 35 years in Peruvian prison, with eligibility for parole after seven to 17 years.
But no matter how long the prison sentence, if van der Sloot is found guilty, he certainly won't be living the life of luxury he's accustomed to.
"He'll be put in Lurigancho Prison, which is the worst of the worst," Michael Griffith, senior partner at the International Legal Defense Counsel, tells AOL News. "They should have a sign above the door there saying, 'All those who pass this way leave all hope behind.' "
Griffith has counseled and represented clients in more than 40 countries on a variety of charges. His most renowned case, involving an American incarcerated in a Turkish prison, was the basis for the film and book "Midnight Express."
Having visited more than two dozen foreign prisons, Griffith says Lurigancho is in a world of its own.
"There are 35 guys in a room there," he says. "They don't have beds, they go to the bathroom on the floor and the showers run once a week for 15 minutes. Fifty percent of the inmates have AIDS or tuberculosis, and you can die from eating the food."
If convicted and sent to Lurigancho, van der Sloot would be in considerable danger, Griffith says. "Let me put it to you like this," he says. "You have 10,000 guys in a prison with 3,000 beds. Eighty percent of these guys have nothing. A hundred bucks will carry them for four months, so they'll stand in line [to be paid] to cut his throat."
Beyond what van der Sloot might face if convicted and locked up, there's the question of what might happen after he's released. Would such a man still be a danger to society? According to Dietz, that depends.
"There is an interesting controversy on whether career criminals burn out with time," Dietz explains. "For many years, it was believed that they tended to get less dangerous as they aged." According to a number of studies, he says, "by and large it looks as though [the danger] diminishes past age 40.
"But the short answer is someone who has killed more than once can never be regarded as safe enough to release."
'Let All the Shoes Drop'
Neither Brown nor Dietz believes that van der Sloot's alleged confession or possible imprisonment will result in any new details in the Holloway case. However, Harold Copus --- a former FBI agent who worked the Holloway investigation as a private detective -- is more hopeful.
"There are people in the Holloway case [who are gathering in Peru] in anticipation that part of the negotiations for a reduced sentence includes van der Sloot giving info on Natalee," says Copus, who heads up Copus Security Consultants in Atlanta. "There should be some people quaking in their boots in Aruba right now."
Copus adds that Holloway's mother, Beth Holloway, is anxious for closure in the case.
"Beth and her family have been jerked from pillar to post every time there has been a new confession from van der Sloot," Copus says. "She just wants to wait and let all the shoes drop."
Source: AP